themortgagellm™FHA share of purchase originations: 2024 vs 2019
Prompt
“What is the FHA share of purchase originations in 2024, and how does it compare to 2019?”
Response
Across HMDA's first-lien purchase universe, the FHA share moved as follows:
| Year | Total first-lien purchase originations | FHA originations | FHA share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ~4.39M | ~781K | 17.83% |
| 2024 | ~3.40M | ~610K | 17.95% |
The structural story is composition, not share. Despite the rate-spike environment, the FHA-vs-conventional mix held essentially flat (+0.12 pp) while total purchase volume contracted 22.5% (~990K fewer purchase originations). Both FHA and conventional purchase volume shrank roughly in proportion through the affordability cycle.
What's beneath the flat headline:
- Rate-spike absorption was symmetric. The widespread expectation that FHA would gain share through 2022-2024 (as conventional channels tightened LLPA pricing and overlays) didn't materialize at the headline level — both channels lost volume at similar rates.
- Within FHA, the borrower profile shifted. 2024 FHA borrowers skew lower-FICO and more first-time-buyer than 2019's FHA cohort. The headline-stable share masks compositional shifts inside the FHA segment.
- Conventional resilience. Conventional originators (UWM, Rocket, regional banks) retained their relative position through the rate cycle despite the LLPA reshuffling, partly because the affordability squeeze hit FHA and conventional first-time buyers in parallel.
Methodology note: Restricted to first-lien purchase originations (the standard analyst cut). 2024 HMDA is the Snapshot LAR; figures will rebench by ~0.1-0.3 pp when the Annual LAR publishes.