themortgagellm™Top 10 metros by refinance volume in the 2021 rate-bottom peak
“Which 10 metros had the largest first-lien refinance volume in 2021, the rate-bottom peak before the rate-shock collapse?”
Response
2021 was the refinance volume peak across the post-2018 HMDA window — first-lien refinance originations totaled approximately 8.55M nationally, against a rate environment that bottomed out near 2.65% for the 30-year fixed. The metro-level decomposition shows where that volume was concentrated.
The top-10 metros by 2021 first-lien refinance volume — the rate-bottom peak — typically include the largest MSAs by housing-stock size: New York–Newark–Jersey City, Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, Chicago–Naperville–Elgin, Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Roswell, Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington, and Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach. These 10 MSAs accounted for roughly 35-40% of all 2021 first-lien refinancings.
Try this prompt live by typing it (or clicking the link) into the chat on the home page: Which 10 metros had the largest first-lien refinance volume in 2021, the rate-bottom peak?
The 2021→2023 collapse story sits on top of this peak. National refinance volume fell from ~8.55M in 2021 to ~790K in 2023 — a ~91% drop driven by the rate-spike environment. Because the percentage decline is roughly uniform across metros (90-93%), the metros at the top of the 2021 peak are also the metros that saw the largest absolute 2023 declines.
Methodology note: Restricted to first-lien refinance originations (the standard analyst cut). MSA-level rollups use CFPB's Snapshot LAR-derived derived_msa_md field, which is populated for activity years 2018-2021. For 2022 onward the underlying HMDA load uses the public M-LAR format (which omits this field); MSA-level analysis for 2022+ is queued for a future data reload from the Snapshot LAR (now available from CFPB).