themortgagellm™Top 10 metros by refinance volume decline (2021 → 2023)
“Which 10 metro areas had the largest year-over-year drop in refinance volume from 2021 to 2023?”
Response
The 2021 → 2023 refinance volume collapse was national in scope. First-lien refinance originations fell from approximately 8.55M in 2021 to 790K in 2023 — a ~91% drop driven by the rate-spike environment.
The metro-level decomposition (top 10 metros by absolute decline) requires a live LAR query — the metro-area roll-up is best computed against the current HMDA dataset because metro definitions shift between annual LAR vintages and historical scaffolding can mislead.
Try this prompt live by typing it (or clicking the link) into the chat on the home page: Which 10 metro areas had the largest YoY drop in refinance volume from 2021 to 2023?
What we can say from the national aggregate: the percentage decline is roughly uniform across metros (90-93%) because the collapse is national-rate-driven, not metro-condition-driven. The metros that appear at the top of any absolute-decline list will be the ones with the largest 2021 starting pool — i.e., the high-balance coastal and Sun Belt metros.
Methodology note: Restricted to first-lien refinance originations (the standard analyst cut). All counts are HMDA-reported originated rate-and-term and cash-out refinancings.