themortgagellm™2018 Freddie cohort empirical 36-mo 60+DQ rate
Prompt
“What is the empirical 36-mo 60+DQ rate for the 2018 Freddie cohort?”
Response
The 2018 Freddie cohort 36-month cumulative 60+ DQ rate, and its comparison against neighboring vintages, is best computed live from the empirical-curves dataset — the rates are sensitive to refi-driven survivorship (loans that would have gone delinquent prepaid first, removing themselves from the denominator) and the relative comparison depends on which vintages are still maturing at the time of query.
Try this prompt live by clicking the link below:
Conceptual interpretation:
- The 2018 cohort is the cleanest "non-refi-distorted" GSE vintage in the recent record — its loans seasoned through normal credit cycles without the 2020-21 refi-boom survivorship effect.
- The 2020 cohort typically shows lower cumulative DQ rates because refi-driven prepayments removed the higher-risk loans before they could go delinquent.
- For MBS analyst use, the 2018 vintage is the most defensible long-run benchmark; later vintages need explicit refi-burnout adjustment to compare cleanly.
The empirical-curves dataset (12/24/36-mo horizons) is accessible at GET /api/empirical_curves for programmatic access.