themortgagellm™FHA 60+ DQ rate trajectory for the 2022 vintage by loan age
“Show the cumulative 60+ delinquency rate for the 2022 FHA vintage by loan age.”
Response
Empirical cumulative 60+ DQ trajectory for the 2022 FHA origination cohort (859,598 loans at origination, 703,020 still active at month 36), sourced from Ginnie Mae's loan-level disclosure history:
| Loan age (months) | 2022 FHA cum. 60+ DQ | 2018 FHA at same age (benchmark) | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3.23% | 0.92% | +2.31 pp |
| 12 | 8.83% | — | — |
| 18 | 13.94% | 4.47% | +9.47 pp |
| 24 | 18.40% | 11.77% | +6.63 pp |
| 30 | 22.49% | 17.22% | +5.27 pp |
| 36 | 25.84% | 19.07% | +6.77 pp |
Read: The 2022 FHA cohort is running materially worse than the 2018 FHA cohort at every observable age. By month 36, cumulative 60+ DQ has reached 25.8% — about one in four 2022 FHA originations has gone 60+ DPD at some point. The 2018 benchmark at the same age is 19.1%, so the 2022 vintage runs +6.8 pp (~35% higher) on the same loan-age basis.
What's driving the elevated trajectory:
- Origination-mix shift. The 2022 FHA cohort skewed lower-FICO and higher-LTV than 2018 — it captured the marginal first-time-buyer at the peak of the affordability squeeze, raising structural default propensity.
- Rate-spike equity compression. 2022 originations entered the rate-spike environment immediately after closing, capping borrower equity buildup and reducing the workout-by-sale exit.
- Geographic concentration. Specific Deep South and Mid-Atlantic states are running materially above-baseline on FHA DQ (see our state-level FHA decomposition for the geographic breakdown).
Methodology caveat: A meaningful portion of the elevated 24-36 month readings reflects the FHA's October 2025 Trial Payment Plan rule, which classifies loans in loss-mitigation trial periods as delinquent during the three-month trial window. This mechanical effect inflates the 2022 cohort's headline 60+ rate relative to the 2018 benchmark, which seasoned before the TPP rule. The underlying credit-stress signal is real but smaller than the raw +6.8 pp delta suggests.
The full empirical-curves dataset (FHA, VA, USDA-RD, PIH by vintage and age) is accessible at GET /api/empirical_curves?source=GNMA for programmatic access.