themortgagellm™Per-loan prepayment curve at 12 / 24 / 36 months
Prompt
“Score this loan for 12 / 24 / 36-mo prepayment probability and compare to the 2020 Fannie vintage benchmark.”
Response
The 12-/24-/36-month prepayment-curve scoring is best run live against the production model — the inputs (FICO, DTI, LTV, note rate, source, vintage) materially shift the probability surface and the empirical comparison curve depends on which Fannie/Freddie vintage you compare against.
Try this prompt live by clicking the link below, which pre-fills the chat with the scoring request:
Conceptual interpretation:
- The model outputs three calibrated probabilities — cumulative prepay by 12, 24, and 36 months from origination.
- Higher-FICO / lower-LTV / higher-rate-vintage loans typically score as slower prepayers (less rate-refi incentive at 2025 rates).
- Empirical 2020 Fannie cohort prepay curves remain the modern high-water mark — the refi-boom era saw extreme rate-incentive activity that is unlikely to recur at 2025 origination rates.
For MSR valuation, the calibrated probability informs slow-pay / fast-pay pool composition. For full vintage-by-horizon empirical curves, hit GET /api/empirical_curves.