themortgagellm™Pull-through and lock-to-fund timing by product
“For locks requested 60 to 90 days ago (mature cohort), what fraction funded within 30 days and what is the median days-to-fund by product?”
Response
Cohort: locks requested 60-90 days before the latest Optimal Blue release, so most lifecycle outcomes are observed (funded / fallout / withdrawn).
| Product | Cohort locks | Funded ≤ 30d | Funded ≤ 60d | Fallout | Median days to fund |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conforming 30YR Fixed | 112,481 | 68.4% | 82.1% | 4.2% | 22 days |
| FHA 30YR Fixed | 44,912 | 61.3% | 78.9% | 5.1% | 26 days |
| VA 30YR Fixed | 26,058 | 58.7% | 76.4% | 6.3% | 28 days |
| Conforming 15YR Fixed | 4,881 | 72.1% | 84.6% | 3.4% | 19 days |
Government pull-through runs 7-10 pp below conforming. The FHA/VA gap partly reflects appraisal-cycle differences (FHA appraisals + VA panel timing add days) and partly the higher fallout rate for lower-FICO / higher-LTV borrowers.
Timing has practical secondary-marketing implications: shorter median days-to-fund shifts the funding-cost curve, especially for locks written under 30-day commitments. If timing lengthens (e.g. through a rate shock), the "committed but not yet funded" pipeline grows and hedge coverage assumptions become stale.