themortgagellm™Pull-through probability for a $350K VA application, FICO 650, income $75K
Prompt
“Score this application for pull-through probability: VA loan, $350,000 loan amount, applicant FICO 650, annual income $75,000, owner-occupied primary residence purchase.”
Response
Pull-through model output for the VA application you described:
- Input summary: VA application, $350,000 loan, applicant FICO 650, $75,000 income, owner-occupied first-lien purchase
- Calibrated probability of origination: ~47.5%
- Risk band: BASE
- Operating recommendation: Standard pipeline lock-coverage assumption — predicted probability is within baseline range.
Reference context:
- Industry baseline pull-through across the 2018-2023 training cohort: 61.7%
- This application's predicted 47.5% sits ~14 pp below the population baseline — the 640-679 FICO band is the single largest downward driver in the model. VA applications at this FICO band tend to close at meaningfully lower rates than the population average, partly because more of them encounter underwriting friction on residual-income or DTI overlay checks.
What moves the prediction:
- The 640-679 FICO band is the largest negative pull. Boosting the FICO to 720 would shift the probability materially upward (closer to or above the baseline).
- Loan-amount-to-income ratio (4.7×) is broadly supportive of the application's structural fit but doesn't fully offset the FICO drag.
- Owner-occupied first-lien purchase is the highest-pull-through combination in the model's training distribution and contributes positively here.
Calibration: Test-set AUC 0.93 (2024-2025 holdout), ECE 0.0004 — model probability matches realized close rate closely across the test population. For VA-specific operational planning, originators typically reserve more pipeline slack on applications with predicted pull-through below 50%.