themortgagellm™Repurchase risk for a 720 FICO / 80 LTV / 35 DTI conforming loan
Prompt
“Score repurchase risk for a conforming loan: FICO 720, DTI 35, LTV 80, note rate 6.5%, Fannie pathway.”
Response
Repurchase risk (v4 model) output for the loan you described:
- Input summary: conforming loan, FICO 720, DTI 35, LTV 80, note rate 6.5%, Fannie pathway
- Calibrated probability of repurchase: 0.067%
- Risk band: BASE
- Operating recommendation: STANDARD — within baseline repurchase risk; no enhanced QC required; standard rep-and-warranty reserve allocation.
Reference context:
- 2013-2023 GSE empirical repurchase rate (population baseline, model's true_positive_rate calibration anchor): 0.154%
- This loan's 0.067% prediction sits ~57% below the population baseline — the high FICO (720) and moderate DTI (35) combination is structurally favorable.
Comparison to the model's risk-band thresholds (test-set quantiles):
| Band | Probability range | Reserve treatment |
|---|---|---|
| BASE | 0.00% – 0.287% | Standard reserve |
| P90 | 0.287% – 0.456% | 1.2× reserve scaling |
| P95 | 0.456% – 1.28% | 1.8× reserve scaling + QC re-review |
| P99 | 1.28%+ | Pre-funding decline review recommended |
Calibration: Test-set AUC 0.81 (2024-2025 cross-cycle holdout); isotonic-calibrated. Predicted probabilities track realized repurchase rates closely across the test population.